Not sure what to put in the sliders? Answer in plain terms: prices, customers, and how much the big risks worry you. Each question starts with a Fact (or Our view for rough benchmarks); your answer is your Assumption. The answer choices are ours, and skipped questions use the middle one.
0 of 10 answered
Moonshot explorer Our view
Markets that don't exist yet but could one day pay SpaceX. Each one is valued like an option: the chance it happens, times the profit if it does, discounted back to today. The market sizes, shares, chances and dates are our guesses: move them, and switch on the ones you believe in to add them to your model.
Defence satellites and launch
Spy, missile-warning and military communications satellites built on Starlink technology, plus military launch.
Fact SpaceX already builds Starshield satellites and launches for the US government.
What would have to be true:
Governments keep moving defence work to commercial providers
Security rules allow a Musk-controlled company to hold the work
Rivals (Amazon, Blue Origin, defence primes) don't catch up
If it happens: SpaceX earns $20B a year from 2030, worth $79B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 50% chance and discounted to today: $25B.
Space tourism and private space stations
Paying passengers in orbit, around the Moon and on commercial stations that replace the ageing International Space Station.
Fact SpaceX has flown several private crews to orbit on Dragon since 2021.
What would have to be true:
Starship flies people safely, many times
Ticket prices fall from tens of millions to under $1 million
Enough rich customers and companies to fill flights
If it happens: SpaceX earns $8.0B a year from 2032, worth $32B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 30% chance and discounted to today: $4.9B.
Rocket travel on Earth
Starship flights between cities: New York to Shanghai in under an hour.
Fact Airlines worldwide take in roughly $1 trillion a year. SpaceX showed the idea in 2017.
What would have to be true:
Starship reliability close to an airliner's
Sonic booms and launch sites near big cities allowed
A price close to a business-class ticket
If it happens: SpaceX earns $30B a year from 2038, worth $142B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 8% chance and discounted to today: $3.0B.
Moon and Mars bases
Building and supplying bases for NASA, other governments and private settlers.
Fact NASA's budget is about $25 billion a year; SpaceX holds the Artemis Moon lander contract.
What would have to be true:
Refuelling in orbit and landing Starship on the Moon and Mars
Governments fund long-term bases
Life support that works for years
If it happens: SpaceX earns $30B a year from 2040, worth $95B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 10% chance and discounted to today: $2.0B.
Asteroid mining
Metals, water and fuel mined in space, sold mostly to factories and ships already in space.
Fact No company has mined an asteroid. NASA's OSIRIS-REx brought back about 120 grams of asteroid in 2023.
What would have to be true:
Cheap travel to asteroids and back
Customers in space: fuel depots, orbital factories
Legal rules on who owns what is mined
If it happens: SpaceX earns $30B a year from 2045, worth $142B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 3% chance and discounted to today: $0.5B.
Solar power beamed from space
Giant solar panels in orbit sending power to Earth by microwave, day and night.
Fact Only small test projects have flown so far, such as Caltech's in 2023.
What would have to be true:
Launch costs under about $100 per kilogram
Safe, efficient power beaming
Cheaper than solar plus batteries on the ground
If it happens: SpaceX earns $20B a year from 2045, worth $79B then at 20x profit. Weighted by a 5% chance and discounted to today: $0.5B.
Switch on the moonshots you believe in to add their value to your model above.
Value today = chance x (market x share) x margin x (1 - tax) x 20x profit, discounted from the start year at your required return and shrunk for dilution. Margins are our view: Defence satellites and launch 25%, Space tourism and private space stations 25%, Rocket travel on Earth 30%, Moon and Mars bases 20%, Asteroid mining 30%, Solar power beamed from space 25%.
Rockets, Starlink and, since the xAI merger, Grok, X and Cursor in one company. Below is a valuation lab built on its latest SEC filings: pick a scenario, move the sliders, and the Stonkometer shows whether today's price looks like a bubble or a bargain by your numbers. Assumption Our middle case puts SpaceX at $1.52T against a market value of $2.01T. It is a starting point, not a forecast; yours will differ, and that is the point.
Fact from filings or reports, sourced below · Assumption a Stonkometer default you can change · Our view opinion
Musk's projections, fact-checked
Fact Each claim is quoted with its source. The maths shows what would have to be true; the slider defaults are assumptions.
SpaceX prospectus (June 2026)
“Quantifiable total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, $26.5T of it in AI.”
A TAM is everything everyone could ever sell in a market, not a forecast. Try what share of it SpaceX must win.
SpaceX board (Musk award, Jan 2026)
“Musk's 1 billion restricted shares vest only with market value milestones from $0.5T to $7.5T AND a permanent Mars colony of at least 1 million people.”
What would $7.5T need in profits at a normal multiple?
SpaceX prospectus
“Goal of launching 100 gigawatts of AI compute to orbit every year; orbital compute satellites "as early as 2028".”
Today SpaceX runs 1.7 GW of AI compute on the ground.
What the filings say Fact
Three segments: Space (launch), Connectivity (Starlink) and SI, the renamed AI segment built from xAI (merged 2 Feb 2026): Grok, the X platform, AI infrastructure and Cursor (bought 14 Aug 2026 for $42.5B in stock).
Anthropic rents compute on the Colossus clusters (about 325,000 NVIDIA GPUs) for $1.25B a month through May 2029, but either side can end it with 90 days' notice after the first three months.
Connectivity (Starlink) had $5.2B of revenue and $2.4B of operating income in Q3 2026, the most operating income of the three segments. Consumer ARPU fell from $83 to $69 a month.
33 Falcon launches in Q3 2026 vs 43 a year earlier. All Starship flights so far are classed as internal.
Capital spending was $19.6B in Q3 2026, $16.4B of it in the SI (AI) segment.
On 20 Oct 2026 SpaceX and Tesla both formed special committees to evaluate a possible combination. Nothing is agreed.
Elon Musk controls the vote through 10-vote Class B shares.
Key risks Fact
Starship has to work at scale: next-generation satellites, direct-to-phone and orbital compute all depend on it.
FAA launch licences and FCC/international spectrum licences can delay or block plans.
AI segment is new, still being integrated, loss-making through 9M 2026 and capital hungry.
Dependence on power, GPUs and suppliers for AI data centres.
Controlled company: public shareholders have little say.
The Anthropic contract, a big part of SI revenue, can be cancelled on 90 days' notice.
The company's own risk factors, summarised in plain English. Read the originals below.
The business lines in the model
Space (launch)$4B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $7B on the latest basis
Falcon, Dragon and Starship launches for customers and NASA. Internal Starlink launches earn no revenue here.
Connectivity (Starlink)$16B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $21B on the latest basis
13.6M consumer subscribers on 30 Sep 2026 (7.2M a year earlier), consumer ARPU $69 a month (was $83).
SI (AI: Grok, X, Cursor, compute)$12B last 12 months (to 30 sep 2026), $30B on the latest basis
Formerly xAI. Q3 2026 revenue $7.56B vs $0.81B a year earlier, helped by the $1.25B a month Anthropic compute deal and Cursor.
Bet: Orbital AI compute
Data centres in orbit, deployment planned "as early as 2028" (prospectus).
Bet: Starlink Mobile (direct to phone)
Prospectus sizes Starlink Mobile at $740B of TAM.
Bet: Moon and Mars economy
Not quantified in the prospectus TAM. Musk's pay needs a 1M-person Mars colony.
Last 12 months (to 30 Sep 2026): FY2025 + 9M 2026 - 9M 2025, from the 10-Q and prospectus. Latest quarter x 4 (Q3 2026): Q3 2026 segment revenue x 4. Includes the Anthropic compute contract and Cursor from 14 Aug.. Cash $51.3B + marketable securities $38.6B, less debt and finance leases $38.8B (30 Sep 2026). 8,246.5M Class A + 5,334.5M Class B shares outstanding on 15 Oct 2026 (10-Q cover).
Questions people ask Fact
When did SpaceX go public, and at what price?
SpaceX listed on Nasdaq on 12 June 2026 under the ticker SPCX, at $135 a share.
What is SpaceX worth today?
About $2.01T at $148.25 a share (2026-10-26). Whether that is fair depends on Starlink, launch and the AI business; set your own numbers in the lab above.
How does SpaceX make money?
Three segments: Starlink internet (the largest profit), launch services, and the AI business (Grok, X and Cursor) that came with the xAI merger.
Not investment advice. Stonkometer is an educational calculator, not investment advice. Valuations depend entirely on the assumptions you choose. We are not a broker or adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider a licensed adviser. Full disclaimer